Introduction to the EXtended CPC Analogs Model     (EXCAM)

    The model utilizes the Climate Prediction Center's 6-10 day and 8-14 day analogs as an anchor for further prognostication two to six weeks into the future. Analogs are chosen using the the highest correlations between the current running 35-day time window focused on 500mb geopotential heights over the Pacific North American pattern region (60W westward to 175E, 20N to 70N) and 35-day time windows during similar seasons from 1950 to now (CPC 2015). The top ten correlations for both the 6-10 day and 8-14 day periods (analogs dates based around Day 8 and Day 11) are used within the Extended CPC Analogs Model to create forecasts two to six weeks out. Week 2 is not modelled for the 8-14 day period. Dates follow YYYYMMDD Format. Model is run daily around ~3:00 - 4:00 P.M Central Time. Remember, this is a model, not gospel, it is to be used as a wrench in your meteorology toolbox. If I am busy or sick, model runs will not be guaranteed. Here is an example of how the model is created based around the 20151207 (Day 0) model run: